Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Predictions for the upcoming primary election.

My first prediction is a depressed Democrat turnout. As a result, the numbers that come out of this primary should not be necessarily interpreted as outcomes for the general election. That is to say I would expect that in the primary election Democrat numbers will be somewhat lower than usual and that there will be some level of increase from the primary to the general for Democrat outcomes.

While the local Daily Democrat newsletter will naturally take credit for many of these outcomes, there is little doubt that the selection of the candidates to go into the general election will not be impacted by leftists choosing other leftists.

Here are my final predictions for the primary, limited only to contested primaries of three candidates. (The top two vote getters moving on to the general)

In the order of the voters pamphlet:


Delavar is out.  He's had no message, no money, no plan and is too closely aligned with the Paulbots.

Legislative offices:

17th district, Seat two – Rockhold, unfortunately, will not make the cut.

I don't say it's unfortunate because he's a libertarian and I lean that way; I say unfortunate because he has some good ideas but at the candidate forum at the library last week, he viewed his responses as more of a libertarian infomercial then as the opportunity to respond to the issues he was confronting with the libertarian bent. This unfortunately tells me that he's not exactly sure why he's running or how to get there.

18th district, seat one - John Ley is the one at most risk here.

In my opinion, neither Brandon Vick nor Mike Briggs are Fit for election to any position. Ley is superior in every conceivable way Because unlike Vick, he will actually work, and unlike Briggs, he actually has a clue about what the people of the 18th district truly want.

Unfortunately, while he has run a good campaign, I don't believe that it will be strong enough to survive to get John into the general. Vick has the advantages of incumbency and name familiarity, and his ability to tell stories about how legendary he is in his own mind and about how important he is in Olympia, no matter how untrue they are (and they are untrue) will likely to enable him to survive the challenge from John. All Briggs needs to survive to get into the general is about 35% of the vote which is more or less what I expect that he'll get... both in the primary AND the general.

And that is a shame, because Vick's abysmal representation is a complete waste of time, effort, and energy for the people of this district.

49th district, seat one - Dalesandro will be over.

Unfortunately for the state of Washington, the Democrats could run a rock ape in the 49th (and frequently have) and because it has a D after its name it would get elected. "Legislative representation" which routinely ignores the will of the people even when that will has been expressed at the ballot.

Nevertheless, Dalesandro has no name recognition or money.  and his complete lack of party identity means that he will not have party loyalists to vote for him.

49th district, seat two - Ross is out.

Crane has been the perennial candidate, Has the name familiarity and has been essentially the corollary of the phrase that the world is run by those who show up. The disdain with which the newspaper is treated her as a badge of honor which likely result in her once again getting the largest Republican vote.

Moeller is proof that the Democrats could run a soccer ball in the 49th district and win. No candidate or incumbent shows the arrogance, stupidity, and tin ear Of Jim Moeller who believes that his own constituents are idiots and who is gone so far as to sue them to overturn their own vote.

Sheriff - Owens and Graser are out.

It will be Atkins and Gardner To the general.

Gardner has no business being sheriff, his sorry episode yesterday where I observed him campaigning in his deputy's garb proves that.

But the left is coalescing around him since he's not a Republican.  Graser will split the GOP vote but not get enough of it; Owens will split the so-called no-party vote and not get enough of it.

This comes with the caveat: it was clear during the Madore/Boldt election, that the hard-core left would rather dive into a vat of hydrochloric acid then vote for someone who does not have a D after their name. And while I know that the allegedly nonpartisan Gardner has been doing everything he can to secure the Democrat vote and endorsements, the result for him may ultimately be quite surprising.

Clark County PUD - no idea.

I only know that I'm voting for Bill Hughes, because he's been around forever and I really, really like him.

I can be as wrong as the next guy,  and I do urge everyone to vote only after they have personally investigated the options and come to an informed conclusion.

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