Wednesday, August 06, 2014

So.... what's it all mean? (Primary Results)

Well, things went more or less how I expected.

I expected Delavar to be out.  He's out.

I expected Rockhold in the 17th and Ley in the 18th to lose.  Ley came close ... a 4% switch would have done the trick... and now, we're left with two miserable choices.

I expected Dalesandro to be out in the 49th.  I was surprised that Crain was defeated and I got that wrong.

I expected Owens and Graser to miss the cut.

I had no real clue about the PUD commissioners.  I hoped that Piper wouldn't make it, and I was correct about that.

In the general, the charter will be destroyed at the polls and Pridemore along with it.

So, that leaves two non-choices running for Congress in the WA03.  Both are equally worthless. Herrera, perhaps the most worthless member of congress in the country, will likely win going away.

Pridemore has to be terrified: he needed to do much better in that commissioner district and it's fairly clear that he loses in the general.  As a father of the CRC Scam, he's low-hanging fruit and obviously a member of the "I only represent Steve" crowd.

Every county elected official running for re-election will be re-elected.

In the legislature, every incumbent save for Stonier will be reelected.

The Wilson/Stonier fight will be epic.

Both sides will believe they can win.  Both sides will pour massive amounts of money into taking the seat.  Both sides will engage in the kind of political combat that is legendary.  The left will lies, distort, deny, cover and then lies some more.  Think in terms of the kind of campaign Probst handlers ran in 2012.

And in the end, I conclude that Wilson will win.

There are thousands of votes left to count: I expect some movement to the right as is traditional with late votes.  I expect the margins of victory in the primary to increase slightly for the GOP incumbents and to close slightly for the GOP challengers.  ("Slightly" means perhaps 1.5 to 2%)

That's been something of the historical norm.  CV has it that the left votes early and the right votes late: I voted at 5:00 p.m. yesterday, for example.

That doesn't always hold true.  But one need look no further than Tom Mielke's election in 2008.

Election night, he was 4282 votes behind Brokaw, and he proceeded to win by just over 200 votes, showing a break to the right so hard that it sprained my wrist.  Yet, Mielke's re-elect win was massive, not unlike Stewart's defeat of Pridemore is likely to become.

That doesn't always happen to that extent.  But to a greater or lesser level, it DOES happen.

Across the state, things look good for the continuation of the Majority Coalition Caucus. The GOP may pick up a couple of seats in the House.

But generally, not much is going to change.  And that's unusual in itself, given the miserable condition of this country and our state.

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