And, according to the usually reliable Debka, that has already happened... at least for 5 hours. And what did we do about it?
What do you think?
Nothing.
Iranian missile spin closes Hormuz for five hoursMore:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 31, 2011, 12:16 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Iranian missiles Iranian naval exercise Strait of Hormuz US warships Persian Gulf GCC USS Stennis cruises Persian Gulf watersBy a media trick, Tehran proved its claim that closing the Strait of Hormuz is as "easy as drinking water," debkafile reports. First thing Saturday morning, Saturday, Dec. 31, Iran's state agencies "reported" long-range and other missiles had been test-fired as part of its ongoing naval drill around the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of the test, Tehran closed its territorial waters. For five hours Saturday, not a single warship, merchant vessel or oil tanker ventured into the 30-mile wide Hormuz strait, waiting to hear from Tehran' that the test was over.
Instead, around 0900 local time, a senior Iranian navy commander Mahmoud Moussavi informed Iran's English language Press TV that no missiles had been fired after all. "The exercise of launching missiles will be carried out in the coming days," he said.
For five hours therefore, world shipping obeyed Tehran's warning and gave the narrow waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes, a wide berth. They stayed out of range of a test which, debkafile's military sources report, aimed to demonstrate for the first time that Shahab-3 ballistic missiles which have a range of 1,600 kilometers and other missiles, such as the Nasr1cruise marine missile, are capable of reaching Hormuz from central Iran.
The Moussavi statement was not aired on Iran's Farsi-language media. It was not necessary; Tehran had demonstrated by this ruse that it could close the vital waterway for hours or days at any moment.
Friday night, shortly after Tehran reported the missile-firing test was to take place the next morning, Washington announced the $3.48 billion sale to the United Arab Emirates of 94 advanced THAAD missiles with supporting technology.
Like the $30 billion sale of 84 F-15 fighter jets to the Saudi Arabia announced this week, delivery dates were not specified. The first F-15s for Saudi Arabia are due some time in 2015. It must therefore be said that the announced sophisticated US arms sales to the Persian Gulf nations bear only tangentially on the current state of tension in the region around Iranian threats.
The Hormuz missile stratagem has given Tehran three advantages in its face-off with Washington and the Gulf Arab governments:
1. It gave credibility to the threats issued by Iranian military chiefs last week regarding free passage in the Strait of Hormuz and Western sanctions:
On Dec. 29, Navy commander Adm. Habibollah Sayari said it was "really easy" for Iran's armed forces to shut the strait, adding "But today, we don't need [to shut] the strait because we have the Sea of Oman under control and can control the transit."
The next day, Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Gen. Hossein Salami said the United States was not in a position to tell Tehran "what to do in the Strait of Hormuz. Any threat will be responded to by threat… We will not relinquish our strategic moves if Iran's vital interests are undermined by any means."
The world has learned that a spineless American leadership is not to be feared as much as it is to be pitied.
So much for that "any disruption will not be tolerated" BS.
3 comments:
Patience, patience...
Don't be lured in. Remember, "sink one tanker..."
Let's not get carried away here. Closing down hormuz for 5h for a military exercise and shutting it down as a strategic economical response to more sanctions (which I remind you, harm the innocent civilians far greater than any diplomat or theocrat) are two totally separate acts, with separate intentions as well as consequences.
Except...
Try looking at this from their perspective.
They've been threatened for so long with so much; they've already been instrumental in killing 4,000 American and NATO/UN troops and wounding tens of thousands more...
They've been warned against building a nuclear weapon.
Nothing we've done has either stopped them from providing insurgents around the planet with arms and those arms have already been used to kill us. And what has their bill for that been? What did that.... does that.... cost them?
They kill us, wound us... spill our blood... and they HAVE been doing that for over ten years...
And what do we do or have we done about it? Multiple acts of war... and what has been our reaction? They plan an assassination in THIS country... and what have we done except throw a fit?
We have a hissy fit that they're working to become a nuclear power. We demand they stop. The UN has demanded they stop.
Have they stopped?
And what have we done about it?
From THEIR perspective, they can close the Straights at any time for as long as THEY feel like it.
And what will we do about it?
Precisely what we've done about their efforts to kill and wound us already.
Precisely what we've done about their efforts to become a nuclear power.
Nothing.
Oh, we'll talk... we'll sputter... we'll bitch... we'll moan.... we'll pay right through the nose as the price of oil skyrockets.
But what will we DO about it?
Precisely what we HAVE done about it: nothing.
From their perspective, that's a gamble they're willing to take because we have a history of weakness in dealing with these thugs. They smell fear like sharks smell blood in the water and we REEK.
They believe they've accurately gauged the cowardice displayed in the White House and can act with impunity. And they believe that because we haven't provided them with any reason not to.
Even in this instance, the Bahrain-based U.S. 5th Fleet's spokeswoman warned that any disruption "will not be tolerated."
For me, the critical words are "any disruption" and "tolerated."
Well, this was a "disruption," thus coming under the auspices of "any disruption" and then the question becomes: did we, who claimed we would not tolerate ANY disruption, in fact, tolerate it?
Of course we did.
We are on the outside of an envelope that is constantly being pushed. And until we push back, that envelope is going to get bigger, and bigger, and bigger... and our failure to do anything... to even mention this stoppage, for example, serves to buttress the Iranian position that we're too tired and too cowardly to keep our word.
Like we were in Vietnam; like we were with the Kurds in the first PGW, and like we are now as the insurgents begin the process of cleansing Iraq of those who were stupid enough to believe us... because as a nation, that's how we roll.
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