More numbers are out for the 18th. Most of them speak for themselves.
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The others running but not fund raising include the excitable Rich Carson, and Jon Haugen.
With the NRA's endorsement of Ann Rivers and her continuing enviable fund raising prowess, unmatched by all the other candidates combined, The Vancouver Business Journal called it right when they named her the Republican front-runner. She banked around $8700.... last week.
Dennis Kampe, the lone announced democrat running (Jon Haugen ran for the state senate against Zarelli as a democrat back in 08) Banked a respectable $2400 or so for the week.
Jon Russell impressed, just not the way he might think; by banking $160, $60 of which came from Russell himself.
Brandon Vick, whose family landscaping business must be in the height of their season, has not raised any reported funds since June 20.
Anthony Bittner stopped campaigning months ago. He last reported income in April, and last filed a C4 (Expenses) for May; he's skipped all campaign events to include parades, editorial boards, forums and CVTV's video voter guide. He does not have a picture or statement in the Voter's Pamphlet, although he claims he submitted both.
Do these kinds of numbers guarantee victory for Rivers? Of course not. In a primary scenario, one need go back no farther then the legendary Burkman-Campbell primary for state representative back in, what was it.... 06?
But the fact remains that Rivers is receiving the most POLITICAL support in addition to her monetary accomplishments.
Russell has gone increasingly negative, following the pattern that, well, has resulted in precisely zero political victories around here for candidates where Russell has received a pay check, to include $16,000 from Liz Pike.
His minions are scrambling. But he lacks the time and money needed; too many people know about his proclivity to lie and exaggerate; too many are turned off by his use of Washougal City Government as a campaign prop and far too many find it impossible to believe, as he finds it plausible to believe, that he bears no responsibility for the Beverly Hillbillies type government in place on his watch.
Brandon Vick has worked hard and well. He hasn't been able to devote the time he's needed to run an all out campaign but he's done the best that could be expected under the circumstances.
Bittner, on the other hand, seemed to think that all he needed to do was file and put up a few signs.
Good luck with that.
The "independents" running for this gig have yet to address the "how are you going to get anything done" aspect of the "what next?" in the equation.
Out numbered 97 to 1, chances are few that they could get anything done, or keep anything harmful from getting done.
It's been a fascinating 8 months are so... a learning experience for some, and exercise in futility for others. And we'll know 2 weeks from today who moves on... and who moves into obscurity.
Cross posted at Jon Russell Watch.
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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
18th District wrap up.
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Well, here's the numbers based on C-3's filed by the candidates.
Brandon Vick..................$200 to $7300 ($4,415 actual donations)
Jon Russell .....................$195 ($175 in personal funds) to $11,500 or so
Anthony Bittner..............0 the same at $4571
Ann Rivers......................$3550 to $43,679 ($35,470 actual donations)
Dennis Kampe.................$1335 (Plus $1000 in personal funds) to $16,960 ($14,160 actual donations)
Anyone else running has either dropped out or filed short form, limiting their financial involvement to $5000 or less.
So, what's it all mean?
It means Bittner, Russell and Vick have no serious support.
It means that the democrats have written the 18th off and made Kampe their token candidate, when he has to write himself thousand dollar checks.... that aren't even loans.
I've been doing this long enough to know that money is certainly not the only indicator of support. I've been to a couple of parades, for example.
I look at Ann Rivers' US Senatorial size parade posse, in comparison to lesser candidates like Jaime Herrera or any of the others running.... and I've got to wonder: who really has the support?
When Russell finally accepted the inevitable, that is that as a congressional candidate, he had little chance to rise above punchline status and ditched that to run for the 18th, I figured he was a kamikaze candidate.
Russell knows he can't win. While he claimed he had an "Army of 200 volunteers" when he bailed out of his flaming congressional run, there's no evidence that he has anything of the sort.
Two hundred volunteers could hold car washes and raise more money than Russell has. And an abysmal showing in this election will fortunately mean he's through.
Recent events verifying his propensity to lie will follow him for the rest of his hopefully short political career.
Bittner has almost completely disappeared, sullying what otherwise could have been a promising political career by engaging in rather rank cowardice.
While a painful conclusion to draw, the fact is that Bittner has yet to attend a single, solitary forum of any kind. He's blown off the 18th District PCO's, the Columbian Editorial Board (An act that for incumbents I recommend, but for new candidates represents something of a vital learning experience and name recognition opportunity) a couple of forums and has, so far, blown off CVTV as well.
From all appearances, this has long since ceased to be a political campaign as much as it's become an ego boost to a kid who seems to be incapable of taking representation of the people seriously.
Brandon Vick is a young man with a possible future in this business at some point... but now ain't that point.
He has shown himself incapable of raising anything approaching the necessary money to get his message out. And, unfortunately, it seems he's saddled himself with many of Shannon Barnett's campaign herd... and, well, they weren't all that... and as a result... well, we see the result.
Except for some minor exaggeration on his web site (No Brandon, in fact you're NOT "the only candidate that has the strength, vision and energy needed to win these battles.") he has not engaged in the falsehoods of a Russell as a campaign strategy.
At some point, with more experience and a better plan, he could become a force to be reckoned with.
This, however, is not that point.
There are 4 candidates fighting over what amounts as the same universe of disaffected and fringe elements. Haugen has gone completely off the reservation by espousing the idea that we should just eliminate the House of Representatives (ala the Nebraska plan) while Carson's issue, allegedly based on a failure of the mainstream parties to assist him in his now finished crusade to keep the BPA from running power lines down the street from my place, has vaporized as much as his ability to raise money.
Russell, who is now dealing with 6 different PDC violations (1 repeated) along with allegations that will dog him for the rest of the time he's in politics, (Concerning his almost pathologically false portrayal of his wife as a doctor) and as someone engaging in a whisper campaign because he's afraid to make allegations in public, attempts to take ownership of Tea Party affiliation. Vick, who at least showed up for several weeks at the We, The People vetting sessions (also, come to think of it, blown off by young Mr. Bittner) while Russell didn't seem to be all that frequent a guest; as something of a claim in.
Unfortunately, these people are pounding each other over the same group of voters, and are likely to cancel each other out. Kampe will get the votes of the few democrats who will actually vote in the primary before being destroyed in the general, but his percentage of the vote will likely put him in the top two positions come primary night.
Rivers has run a superior campaign in every respect and looks like she'll win all of it in the general, but will certainly be in the top two in the primary. Focusing on the issues an staying on target is it's own reward.
.
Well, here's the numbers based on C-3's filed by the candidates.
Brandon Vick..................$200 to $7300 ($4,415 actual donations)
Jon Russell .....................$195 ($175 in personal funds) to $11,500 or so
Anthony Bittner..............0 the same at $4571
Ann Rivers......................$3550 to $43,679 ($35,470 actual donations)
Dennis Kampe.................$1335 (Plus $1000 in personal funds) to $16,960 ($14,160 actual donations)
Anyone else running has either dropped out or filed short form, limiting their financial involvement to $5000 or less.
So, what's it all mean?
It means Bittner, Russell and Vick have no serious support.
It means that the democrats have written the 18th off and made Kampe their token candidate, when he has to write himself thousand dollar checks.... that aren't even loans.
I've been doing this long enough to know that money is certainly not the only indicator of support. I've been to a couple of parades, for example.
I look at Ann Rivers' US Senatorial size parade posse, in comparison to lesser candidates like Jaime Herrera or any of the others running.... and I've got to wonder: who really has the support?
When Russell finally accepted the inevitable, that is that as a congressional candidate, he had little chance to rise above punchline status and ditched that to run for the 18th, I figured he was a kamikaze candidate.
Russell knows he can't win. While he claimed he had an "Army of 200 volunteers" when he bailed out of his flaming congressional run, there's no evidence that he has anything of the sort.
Two hundred volunteers could hold car washes and raise more money than Russell has. And an abysmal showing in this election will fortunately mean he's through.
Recent events verifying his propensity to lie will follow him for the rest of his hopefully short political career.
Bittner has almost completely disappeared, sullying what otherwise could have been a promising political career by engaging in rather rank cowardice.
While a painful conclusion to draw, the fact is that Bittner has yet to attend a single, solitary forum of any kind. He's blown off the 18th District PCO's, the Columbian Editorial Board (An act that for incumbents I recommend, but for new candidates represents something of a vital learning experience and name recognition opportunity) a couple of forums and has, so far, blown off CVTV as well.
From all appearances, this has long since ceased to be a political campaign as much as it's become an ego boost to a kid who seems to be incapable of taking representation of the people seriously.
Brandon Vick is a young man with a possible future in this business at some point... but now ain't that point.
He has shown himself incapable of raising anything approaching the necessary money to get his message out. And, unfortunately, it seems he's saddled himself with many of Shannon Barnett's campaign herd... and, well, they weren't all that... and as a result... well, we see the result.
Except for some minor exaggeration on his web site (No Brandon, in fact you're NOT "the only candidate that has the strength, vision and energy needed to win these battles.") he has not engaged in the falsehoods of a Russell as a campaign strategy.
At some point, with more experience and a better plan, he could become a force to be reckoned with.
This, however, is not that point.
There are 4 candidates fighting over what amounts as the same universe of disaffected and fringe elements. Haugen has gone completely off the reservation by espousing the idea that we should just eliminate the House of Representatives (ala the Nebraska plan) while Carson's issue, allegedly based on a failure of the mainstream parties to assist him in his now finished crusade to keep the BPA from running power lines down the street from my place, has vaporized as much as his ability to raise money.
Russell, who is now dealing with 6 different PDC violations (1 repeated) along with allegations that will dog him for the rest of the time he's in politics, (Concerning his almost pathologically false portrayal of his wife as a doctor) and as someone engaging in a whisper campaign because he's afraid to make allegations in public, attempts to take ownership of Tea Party affiliation. Vick, who at least showed up for several weeks at the We, The People vetting sessions (also, come to think of it, blown off by young Mr. Bittner) while Russell didn't seem to be all that frequent a guest; as something of a claim in.
Unfortunately, these people are pounding each other over the same group of voters, and are likely to cancel each other out. Kampe will get the votes of the few democrats who will actually vote in the primary before being destroyed in the general, but his percentage of the vote will likely put him in the top two positions come primary night.
Rivers has run a superior campaign in every respect and looks like she'll win all of it in the general, but will certainly be in the top two in the primary. Focusing on the issues an staying on target is it's own reward.
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