That's an extremely long putt.
Right or wrong, the effort to trash Semi Bird was, occasionally, over the top.
We are typically a "feelings" based society.
It was clear to me months before any of this started that Bird never had a chance. He had no money and essentially zero name recognition, particularly in the Puget Sound region... which, like it or hate it, is where elections usually are won or lost.
Had we never heard of his military record, good or bad, he still would have lost.
But had we never heard of his military record, chances of unity would be much greater today than they, in reality, have any chance of approaching.
Which is none.
On June 26th, having given this a great deal of thought, I wrote:
...
Here is my professional opinion of the outcome.
The GOP candidate in the general will be the former Congressman.
When the GOP-endorsed candidate gets clobbered in the primary, two things will happen. First, the GOP base will stay home in droves for the general. There will be zero ways to incentivize the base to throw their support behind a candidate who, along with his surrogates, never misses the opportunity to belittle the soldier’s supporters... and who, all while the non-endorsed candidate, when he was in Congress, on the surface at least, has a voting record in office that would make Patty Murray smile.
Think in terms of Jaime Herrera voting to impeach Donald Trump in that totally unconstitutional congressional kangaroo impeachment court… or Liz Cheney/Adam Kinzinger's democrat efforts on the Jan 6 Committee.
But the exact, same, thing would happen if the Soldier won. The leftist Republicans would refuse to vote for him, making the outcome inevitable and a replay of the Culp campaign 4 years ago.
Second, by committing political hara-kiri, the state party will have been reduced to the political laughing stock of the PNW.
Far too often, even those actively engaged in the political realm fall victim to the “is he like me” syndrome instead of the “can he win” syndrome.
That’s what happened here.
Conservatives are frequently unable to separate the two because a major part of conservatism all-too-frequently involves feelings instead of political reality.
That is not to say that conservatives are wrong in their thinking as to what is the best course of action of those available. But that IS to say that frequently, conservatives as a group forget that they make up, perhaps, 30% of the electorate. And in this state? Likely even less.
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In all of this, we can see the symptoms. No one realistically believed Reichert could win statewide. The Establishment hacks that put him up to it are the same hacks that supported the democrat over the Republican in the 3rd Congressional District 2 years ago and spent millions to torpedo him, which they did successfully.
The GOP establishment would rather have a democrat win than a conservative Republican.
Sadly, my professional opinion in all of this is that absent some major October Surprise, this election is already over. And my professional opinion is not the result of any bias for or against anyone. It is my assessment of politics in this state.
Were I wrong in this assessment, leftists would be rioting against their city governments. Seattle has turned into a sewer. Tacoma may even be worse. Most every city of any size in this state, including Vancouver, refuses to act to end crime, homelessness, drugs and everything that goes with it. And the majority of these cities continuing to foster these outcomes all have the commonality of leftist dominance in city government.
Even Lynnwood has city council members involved in drag queens for 2 year-olds. Grooming is obvious and open. And who’s doing anything about it?
ANGER is required to replace incumbents or titular incumbents. And it’s just not there at the state level. It SHOULD be. But it isn’t.
And as a result, the winner in this state will not be a Republican.
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Some reading this may disagree. But I believe that the harder Reichert supporters pushed (against a guy who had no chance to win anyway, IMHO), the less likely there was any chance Reichert could win as I believe many... far too many... will refuse to vote for him based on how they believe he treated Bird and how, effectively, his surrogates, formal or otherwise, treated Bird's supporters.
The "let's make nice" attempt is needed. But it will also fail.
In the future, the party needs to take a deep, hard look at itself. Before it can figure out how it can win, they need to figure out why they keep losing.
And for close to the last 40 years, the magic key has eluded them.
That does not mean become "democrat light." Nor does it mean "out-democrating the democrats" as the GOP has done all too frequently in the name of "bipartisanship."
As a former executive director for the state GOP, and a senior legislative staffer in Olympia, like the saying goes "I know a thing or two because I've seen a thing or two." But frequently, people in politics in this area and this state don't like what I have to say because it moves them out of their comfort zone.
Next time around, determine a candidate's "win-ability quotient."
THEN figure out if they support enough of the platform that the party, in turn, can support them.
But it does no one any good to put forward a candidate who checks every platform box, but who has none of the equipment; from money, to knowledge, to know-how to name familiarity to get it done.
And leave how you, as a party, "feel" about them out of it.
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