Monday, February 01, 2016

So.... what happened in Iowa?

I'm starting this about 8:15 Monday morning.
DISCLAIMER:  I have no dog in this fight.  The people of this state are so far out of importance or counting for the presidential nominations of the major parties that they have to fly in daylight to us.  We won't even have a primary until May... and this will have been long-since decided.

So, everything I write here is impacted primarily by polling and only eine bißchen by my own personal bias.  I am not supporting any candidate.
Polling indicates the order of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson and the rest.

Polling is also notoriously something less than accurate in Iowa for the caucuses.

Doesn't matter to me which of the nutjobs/criminals running on the left wins there.  The democrats deserve either of them.

Polling is hard to ignore, however, because to ignore it involves the witch-craft of divining who exceeds or fails to meet expectations.  Theoretically, the science of polling becomes more refined each election: models are adjusted to reflect a changing technology base and demographic.  Results are back-analyzed in an effort to improve translation for future caucuses, given the unique nature of the Iowan system.

I can make, I believe, some relatively safe assumptions from the last, notably more historically accurate Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll:

The Establishment is not going to be happy tonight.

Over 50%... possibly as high as 60%... will be going to the combination of Trump/Cruz and Carson.

The individual who wins here tonight does not assume front-runner status.  This is much more a beauty contest than an actual "thing" and the media is spending far too much time on this when other issues confronting us are far more important than who comes in first on the GOP side and gets the 8 delegates followed by 6 for second and 4 for third.  Considering 1237 delegates are needed to get the Brass Ring, whoever wins has an very, very long road to hoe.

It's the kind of thing that feeds on itself in a circle.  No one in the media wants to be outdone.  Trump continues to say "outrageous" things and the media covers all of it under the guise that maybe... just maybe... something he says or does will FINALLY lead to his downfall... and how many times have they pronounced him DOA?

And they so desperately want that.  So, all networks pour more assets into Iowa which results in reporters pontificating on such momentous issues like hotel breakfast buffets.

Meanwhile, the Establishment slime have spent a fortune trying to pump their guys up.

Little Jebbie hardly looks like the anointed one he was portrayed as, say, a year ago.

None of those who've caved on illegal aliens seem to be getting the traction they need.

Rubio, one of the most blatant examples of those who've caved, seems to be getting some momentum.  But will it be too little, too late?  We'll know in about 14 hours or so.

Weather may impact.

Horrific snow forecasts may impact, though weather forecasts for tonite appear to be at least "OK."

If Trump does not win here, expect everyone to point to the missed FOXNews dog and pony show.  But did you notice?  His decision to ignore the debate caused him to be the center of every news story in the cycle.

Had he stayed and put up with that snarky leftist gas bag, he wouldn't have picked up nearly as much ink.

That may provide those who don't support Trump with some comfort, but depending on who you look at, the debate had 11 million viewers or so.

That means roughly 320 million of us (including me) blew it off.  How important can it be that he missed the opportunity to stand there and say the same things he... and all of the others... have said repeatedly before?

What's going to happen tonight?

Well, I feel like Fan Duel.  It's likely to be one of the top three in the polls.  But Iowa voters are like herding cats.  Questions of organization and turn out rule the day.  People who are angry enough to get motivated are likely to do what it takes. 

I think it will be Trump.  He taps into anger fairly well.  And if I'm wrong...

Well, I can always blame Trump blowing off the debate.

Heh.

1 comment:

Pete Masterson said...

What you say is so true. I "improved" the value of my primary vote ... I used to live in California where the primary was held in June. Most populous state in the Union ... and its primary votes didn't mean a thing for the national Presidential election.

However, Washington (May 24), Oregon (May 17), and California (June 7) also tend to have far too many leftist nut jobs, so it's just as well that the votes don't count of much.