Thursday, November 19, 2015

My Putin Problem.

It's too neat.

It's too surgical.

The timing was far too suspect.

And why would ISIS poke a stick in the eye of the Russian Bear, when in real terms, ISIS was, effectively, having it all their own way?

Why would they work so hard to take actions to galvanize the entire Western World against them?

I have no reason to disagree with the conclusion that a bomb knocked that plane out of the sky, kill a couple of hundred people.

But I've been wondering a few days now: was it ISIS that put that bomb there?

Or was it Putin?

What better way for Vlad to eliminate much of the blowback he'd been getting for expanding Russian hegemony in the area?

What better way to force coordination... not with US forces, but just the reverse: forcing the US to coordinate with HIM?

Stalin killed millions of his own people during his regime.

Vlad is a former KGB agent who has been known to have his political enemies assassinated.

What's 200 people sacrificed as pawns on the board of Putin's plans?

Now he can flood the area with his troops and his air power.

And no one will complain.

In fact, Americans are applauding.

I have had concerns that what we've been told is going on actually hasn't been going on, specifically, if the Russians are pounding these scum with the frequency and power we've been told they've been using... then why hasn't ISIS been rolled up?  Why aren't they withdrawing?  Why are they still occupying territory?

Isn't that what happens when your wherewithal to fight is destroyed?

Then why hasn't it happened here?

What's the hold up?


Pete Masterson said...

Your skepticism is not unwarranted .... but check out the history that the former Soviet Union and subsequently Russia has had with Islamic terrorists.

Most of Russia's problems have been with Islamic terrorists from Chechnya (and that was where the Boston Marathon islamists originated). Of course, the USSR invaded Afghanistan back in 1979 with fighting that lasted into 1989.

In 1999, Islamic terrorists were credited with a series of bombings of apartment buildings (killing nearly 300), which led to the 2nd Chechen war. There have been a number of other, smaller events, such as the 2001 bus-stop bombings in Voronezh and an explosion on the Moscow-Grozny train. There was also a market-place bombing in the city of Astrakhan in 2001. In 2002, there was the Moscow theater hostage crisis. (There are some controversies regarding some of these events, where claims were made that the FSB (secret police) actually set some of these explosions.)

In 2013, the "Investigative Committee of Russia" recorded 662 terrorist offenses, including 31 terrorist attacks, which claimed about 40 lives with dozens more injured.

So, it is not beyond the possibility that a bomb was planted on the Russian airliner by Islamic jihadists.

It is also possible that many of these events were done to create a "narrative" to whip up public opinion (in Russia) to gain public support. Getting reliable information from Russia can be difficult. Sometimes a cigar is a cigar.

Just a guy said...

I'm not suggesting it isn't "possible." You never know when some splinter group of some sort might get crazy. But to what end?

Of course it's possible. What I'm suggesting is that I would not for one second put it past Putin to take his own plane out... considering what he's received in return.

See, among other things, this guy is cutting deals with Iran left and right, where Iran is getting Russian weapons systems... that we're allowing Iran to have the money for... without stopping to think that maybe... just maybe... Moscow is on the target list as much as we are.

I take a somewhat more simplistic view, however: what does ISIS have to gain by blowing that plane up?

What does Putin have to gain by blowing that plane up?

Who gets the best end of that deal: ISIS... or Putin?

For me, it's Putin, hands down. There is no discernible upside for ISIS to have done this.

There is a great deal of upside for Putin to have done it.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the most likely. And given Russian/Soviet history, Putin's personal KGB history, the effort to make Russia a super-power again, the vacuum caused by Obama withdrawing from the area... in relative terms, the lose of a 17-odd year old plane and 200 odd people is not just small potatoes, it's tiny shreds of hash browns compared to what he gains, which is world support and total legitimacy for what he's wanted all along.

Now, no one will complain or get in his way... because just like Berlin during WW2, we're more than happy to stand on the sidelines to allow Russians to spill their blood to take these people out.

And Soviet domination of Eastern Europe only lasted about 4.5 decades. This way, he gets multiple warm water ports in the Met area, enormous political power to intimidate countries in the region... and we, effectively, remove ourselves from a large part of the world stage.

From Putin's perspective, what's not to like?