EARLY this morning, one of the GOP no votes on Trump's BBBA flipped. the bill then passed when that one vote was enough to push it past the tie threshold that would have defeated the bill and enabled passage with a vote of 219 to 213.
When it pushed past the tie vote threshold, all of the GOP no votes then
flipped to yes, save for one GOP hold out who likely ended his career yesterday
with a surprise "no" vote, (Caucuses, by tradition, are typically
supposed to lock up on what's called "procedural votes.") and who
then fled the Capitol and failed to return any of Speaker Johnson's phone
calls, leaving leadership hanging.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), the surprise "no" vote, immediately
left the Capitol while the vote was ongoing. The political equivalent of a
"dine and dash" moment, Fitzpatrick was in no mood to defend his vote
nor to take the heat for it. He remained the only GOP no vote.
MAGA is, of course, furious. That said, Johnson likely needs to tread lightly
based on the reality that Fitzpatrick, now considered a full-blown RINO, could
switch parties, reducing the number of votes required to derail any GOP bill to
what would then be effectively a 3-vote majority. (There is no tie-breaking
mechanism in the House, unlike the Senate.)
I had declared the bill dead with the 4.... then 5... "no" votes and
8 GOP reps not voting to that point. That may also have been done
strategically, as anyone voting on the prevailing side of any vote can then
request immediate reconsideration.... and the House leadership (GOP) could then
determine exactly what "immediate" means, which would have resulted
in more time for GOP Leadership to do, what ultimately was done regardless-get
more time for leadership to do what they did: flip the "no" votes.
Now the bill moves on to final passage.
Will the GOP continue to hold the needed votes? That's the question. They can
count on Fitzpatrick to continue to be a no, and others like Rep. Tom Massie
(R-KY) who has been claiming to be a rather militant "no" on this
bill but who, in the end, voted yes on the procedural vote, may once again vote
"no."
This is riveting drama for political junkies. Otto von Bismarck is credited
with a saying that applies here: "There are two things people don't want
to see being made: sausage and legislation," or words to that effect.
As I'm writing this, the democrat leader is engaging in the House version of a
filibuster by whining on the House floor. As a caucus leader, by tradition,
he's allowed to speak as long as he wants... aka "the Magic Minute."
He's been at it for 3 hours or so.
Isn't politics "fun?" (Polymarket, a renown political betting site,
indicates an 84% chance the bill will now pass and pass today.)
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