This is as close to a sure thing as possible. Is it impossible for Rossi to win? of course not.
Is it likely the numbers would look this way if he had announced in February when the poll came out showing Rossi ahead?
Not even close. Pride goes a long way before a fall.
Why am I so sure this is accurate?
In 08, this guy only managed to call 35 races in the US Senate correctly. Of course, there were only 35 races TO call, but that kind of accuracy is difficult to ignore.
Washington Senate More About This Race »
Murray vs. Rossi
Projected Election Results
Based on polling and demographic data, this is the prediction of how the state will vote on election day.
Murray 49.1% +/-6%
Rossi 48.5% +/-6%
Chance Each Candidate Wins The Seat
The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.
Murray 54.3% chance of win
Rossi 45.7% chance of win
|Date||Poll||Sample Size||538 Poll Weight|
|Size of lead|
|Aug. 18-19||SurveyUSA||618 LV|
|Aug. 18||Rasmussen||750 LV|
|July 27-Aug. 1||PPP||1,204 RV|
|July 28||Rasmussen||750 LV|
|July 14||Rasmussen||750 LV|
|June 22||Rasmussen||500 LV||47||47|
|June 9-13||Elway||405 RV||47||40|
|May 26||Rasmussen||500 LV||48||47|
|May 4||Rasmussen||500 LV||48||46|
|May 3-23||U. Washington||850 RV||42||40|
|April 29-May 2||Elway||405 RV||51||34|
|April 19-22||SurveyUSA||517 LV||42||52|
|April 4||Rasmussen||500 LV||48||46|
|March 9||Rasmussen||500 LV||46||49|
|Jan. 24-25||Moore Information||500 LV||43||45|