Thursday, August 26, 2010

FiveThirtyEight: Rossi to lose.

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This is as close to a sure thing as possible. Is it impossible for Rossi to win? of course not.

Is it likely the numbers would look this way if he had announced in February when the poll came out showing Rossi ahead?

Not even close. Pride goes a long way before a fall.

Why am I so sure this is accurate?

In 08, this guy only managed to call 35 races in the US Senate correctly. Of course, there were only 35 races TO call, but that kind of accuracy is difficult to ignore.

Washington Senate More About This Race »

Murray vs. Rossi

Projected Election Results

Based on polling and demographic data, this is the prediction of how the state will vote on election day.

Murray 49.1% +/-6%

Rossi 48.5% +/-6%

Chance Each Candidate Wins The Seat

The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

Murray 54.3% chance of win

Rossi 45.7% chance of win

Recent Polls

DatePollSample Size538 Poll Weight
Murray
Democrat
Rossi
Republican
Size of lead
Aug. 18-19SurveyUSA618 LV
0.92
4552
+7.0
Aug. 18Rasmussen750 LV
0.89
4844
+4.0

July 27-Aug. 1PPP1,204 RV
0.48
4946
+3.0

July 28Rasmussen750 LV
0.18
4947
+2.0

July 14Rasmussen750 LV
0.06
4548
+3.0
June 22Rasmussen500 LV
4747
+0.0

June 9-13Elway405 RV
4740
+7.0

May 26Rasmussen500 LV
4847
+1.0

May 4Rasmussen500 LV
4846
+2.0

May 3-23U. Washington850 RV
4240
+2.0

April 29-May 2Elway405 RV
5134
+17.0

April 19-22SurveyUSA517 LV
4252
+10.0
April 4Rasmussen500 LV
4846
+2.0

March 9Rasmussen500 LV
4649
+3.0
Jan. 24-25Moore Information500 LV
4345
+2.0
Show 10 More

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