I’ve mostly
been silent about this election cycle, which is definitely unusual for me. It’s
difficult to explain, exactly… or even inexactly.
But there is no doubt the cringe-factor has played a role. I’ve spent the
better part of the last 40 years observing, involved in, analyzing, advising
and consulting in primarily local politics. The wear and tear on me has been
horrific and now, as I approach my 69th birthday, I find the once roaring
fire that drove me to have been reduced to the size of a single ember, little
more than a spark.
Over time in a river, even the sharpest stone is typically worn down to a
pebble.
Real life combined with medical issues and stress finally did the deed.
And situations like those confronting us now have also played a role, combined
with the cynicism resulting from candidates claiming to be one thing, only to
become something completely different once sworn in.
The culmination of these experiences where those false promises are clearly
bereft of accountability in a state where the Supreme Court has ruled that
lying as a part of any campaign by either public agency (Sound Transit) private
organization (the Drug Policy Alliance) and individual candidates, among them
Sen. Ann Rivers (R?-18) and former Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt, are perfectly
legal has led to a certain level of “why bother?”
Which brings us to the question of which GOP candidate, if any, will advance to
the general election this November.
I say “if any” because the misguided efforts by both parties to force party
registration (which I strongly opposed and made every effort to stop while I
was the state GOP’s Executive Director) led to our top-two primary system where
regardless of party, the top two vote-getters move to the general, which has
led to a great many democrat-only general elections and to a lesser extent in this
dark blue state, the odd Republican-only general elections.
Thanks in large part to the efforts of the Washington State Grange, we’ve so
far managed to avoid the cancer of party identification, save for going through
the motions of the lightly-voted presidential primary (35.26% of registered
voters earlier this year) where if you participate at all, you have to write
your party allegiance on your ballot envelope.
I, personally, am known as a 4 of 4 voter. This is based on my participation in
the last 4 elections, regardless of politics or school levy or bond or what
have you, or any other balloted election. 4 of 4’s can be counted on to vote.
And that’s a very valuable commodity.
Except this last time. The requirement of party identification on the envelope,
which I steadfastly oppose, made that impossible for me so I skipped it. And I
will skip it again in 2028 due to the party identification issue as well as the
reality that the left could run a brick for president in this state like they did in 2020 and
they’d vote for it and the leftist federal candidate would win the electoral votes here.
Democrats are rerunning a president too dementia-addled to stand trial for his
theft of documents as a Senator and Vice President and subsequently the storage
of some of those documents in cardboard boxes in a garage, while somehow simultaneously
remaining sharp enough to be president.
That is obviously either an indictment of the position of the Presidency of the
United States, as in any simple-minded idiot can actually perform that role…
OR, it’s an indictment of our justice system because the democrat-controlled
Department of Justice just sees this as yet another instance of the weaponized
double-standard where Biden’s political opponents face a level of accountability
they otherwise wouldn’t experience… while he avoids ANY accountability outside
a ballot box.
In short, like the Washington State rule on lying, if your side is in power, it’s
perfectly OK to lie your collective ass off as long as you can win.
There is also, I believe, a substantial overlap between the state and federal
elections confronting us and frankly, I find the whole thing to be exhausting.
The microcosm of our state gubernatorial primary election is a reflection of
the choices confronting the entirety of the American people at the federal
level.
I’ve seen, up close and personal, voters make decisions to oppose someone not
because of what they have done or will do, but because they don’t “like” them.
And that’s a major part of the problem confronting us today. It’s a complete abrogation
of responsibility. Arrive at an outcome of the “like” test, and you no longer
need to do the work. You don’t have to pay attention. You don’t have to
understand what’s going on and who bears responsibility for this horrific state
of affairs.
The “like” test supersedes all of that, “end of discussion.”
Of course, that’s how some historical figures in the past who were very, very
bad actors came to power.
Vision doesn’t matter. Ability doesn’t matter. Record doesn’t matter. The
reality of past=prologue doesn’t matter. For far too many, the only thing that
matters is if the voter “likes” them.
It’s not surprising, really. We’re a feelings-based society that typically
ignores reality, driven instead by manipulation and social media combined with
fictional advertising. So why not vote for a guy bent on this country’s
destruction because you dislike the other guy; even though America was better
off in every imaginable way during his term, considering the impacts of covid? For many voters, the destruction a candidate
has caused, destruction they see with their own eyes and the blood he has spilled
and which is dripping off his hands means nothing.
The vote this November will be driven by hate. And the unreasoned, never ending
hatred of a candidate and, for that matter, a religion; frequently by the SAME
PEOPLE, is on full display here.
One is dementia-addled and brain damaged idiot with a worthless, incompetent,
ignorant toad as a VP, a heartbeat from the absolutely unimaginable horror of
taking over for Racist Joe. He has done more damage to this country in his
almost four years than Obama did in his eight. It will take decades to repair
every aspect of our lives that’s been infected by their cancer.
The other did mean tweets and drove leftists insane which, to be sure, isn’t
that far of a trip.
Here at the state level, there are two main candidates for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the general. One is a
former member of Congress and a former King County Sheriff. The other is a
former Special Forces soldier.
One has a voting record in Congress frequently more in keeping with the
Congressional Democrat Caucus than with the GOP. The other is being chastised
for wearing awards and qualification badges on his uniform that he is not
entitled to, and claiming to have done things he didn't do.
The former soldier was endorsed by the State GOP. The former Congressman threw
a hissy fit over losing out, which from the 10,000 foot level certainly
qualified him for losing what little chance he had for that party endorsement.
Here is my professional opinion of the outcome.
The GOP candidate in the general will be the former Congressman.
When the GOP-endorsed candidate gets clobbered in the primary, two things will
happen. First, the GOP base will stay
home in droves for the general. There will be zero ways to incentivize the base
to throw their support behind a candidate who, along with his surrogates, never
misses the opportunity to belittle the soldier’s supporters... and who, all
while the non-endorsed candidate, when he was in Congress, on the surface at
least, has a voting record in office that would make Patty Murray smile.
Think in terms of Jaime Herrera voting to impeach Donald Trump in that totally unconstitutional
congressional kangaroo impeachment court… or Liz Cheney/Adam Kinzinger's democrat
efforts on the Jan 6 Committee.
But the exact, same, thing would happen if the Soldier won. The leftist
Republicans would refuse to vote for him, making the outcome inevitable and a
replay of the Culp campaign 4 years ago.
Second, by committing political hara-kiri, the state party will have been
reduced to the political laughing stock of the PNW.
Far too often, even those actively engaged in the political realm fall victim
to the “is he like me” syndrome instead of the “can he win” syndrome.
That’s what happened here.
Conservatives are frequently unable to separate the two because a major part of
conservatism all-too-frequently involves feelings instead of political reality.
That is not to say that conservatives are wrong in their thinking as to what is
the best course of action of those available. But that IS to say that
frequently, conservatives as a group forget that they make up, perhaps, 30% of
the electorate. And in this state? Likely even less.
But the political choices to date for the GOP in this state appear to be
between fringe-left Republicans which results in the conservative base staying
home, or conservative Republicans which result in the independents and
fringe-left GOP’ers staying home; or, as they did in the WA03 Congressional
allowing their fringe-left hatred of conservatives to shine through by actively
supporting an antifa-leftist in the Congressional race.
Democrats, for their part, are just as guilty. For example, they’ll run a
fringe-left, downtown-Seattle democrat in the most rural of legislative districts
that have been GOP for decades. Not because that candidate has even a remote
chance of winning but because they will support no other, which leads to their
inevitable defeat n those districts.
This state is a deep, dark, blue. There’s no denying it. And after the general
in November is over; it will, if anything, be even a deeper and darker blue. Because
as badly as things are going in this state, democrats dominate and have party
discipline the GOP can’t even dream about.
To be successful, we’ve got to take baby steps. And as Culp proved 4 years ago,
doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different outcome IS
a definition of insanity.
In all of this, we can see the symptoms. No one realistically believed Reichert
could win statewide. The Establishment hacks that put him up to it are the same
hacks that supported the democrat over the Republican in the 3rd
Congressional District 2 years ago and spent millions to torpedo him, which
they did successfully.
The GOP establishment would rather have a democrat win than a conservative
Republican.
Sadly, my professional opinion in all of this is that absent some major October
Surprise, this election is already over. And my professional opinion is not the
result of any bias for or against anyone. It is my assessment of politics in
this state.
Were I wrong in this assessment, leftists would be rioting against their city
governments. Seattle has turned into a sewer. Tacoma may even be worse. Most every
city of any size in this state, including Vancouver, refuses to act to end
crime, homelessness, drugs and everything that goes with it. And the majority
of these cities continuing to foster these outcomes all have the commonality of
leftist dominance in city government.
Even Lynnwood has city council members involved in drag queens for 2 year olds.
Grooming is obvious and open. And who’s doing anything about it?
ANGER is required to replace incumbents or titular incumbents. And it’s just not there at the state level.
It SHOULD be. But it isn’t.
And as a result, the winner in this state will not be a Republican.
