The tariff issue: how did we get here?

The problem isn't the tariffs per se'. The problem is that, essentially, the Court indicated money was wrongfully taken under IEEPA and, the US now finds itself in a position that all of that money resulting from that application will have to be refunded.

No, the Court didn't say that. But if money was, effectively, taken from any of us, what would we do to recover that money?

My guess is by the end of next week, hundreds, if not more, of lawsuits will be filed to get that money back, which will have to be repaid, not to mention legal fees and interest.

Further, my question, unanswered, is if this solution is so easy, then why didn't the President use those laws instead of the IEEPA which does not have the word "tariff" anywhere in it?

Not to mention, where was all that high-priced legal talent when it came to finding ways to implement tariffs? Did ANY of them foresee this outcome? If they didn't, why didn't they? If they did, did they say anything to Trump about it? If not, why not?

Did the President ignore those warnings? Did he even see or hear them?

The devil is in the details, as this decision clearly shows.

But I seriously doubt it's as simple as many claim.

I would hope it is... but if it was all that simple, then why use an authority that was iffy at best to begin with?

Probable political fall-out over Trump’s Supreme Court tariff defeat

As a retired political consultant, I do, occasionally, prognosticate on Trumpian political portraits.

I predicted early on, for example, that Trump would defeat Hillary in 2016 when no one I could find or read agreed with that assessment.

The Supreme Court decision is/will be a major hit on the President. Essentially one of his main platform planks, his reliance on the unlawful application of a Federal law (International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA) will cost, initially, somewhere in the vicinity of $175 billion to, most likely, be required to be returned to the countries/companies which paid the money in question.

Trump, for his part, claims he has work arounds to, effectively, bypass the Supreme Court. Those options, however, seem dramatically more limited than what he had been doing before.

It has to be kept in mind that while this will be a major hit to the revenue tariffs were bringing in (roughly $30 billion monthly), This decision does not eliminate all tariffs, just those implemented citing IEEPA those implemented citing IEEPA.

IEEPA tariffs represent about 55% of all current tariffs collected in FY 2025.




It is essentially impossible for the US to keep these funds as a result of the USSC declaring the collection of this money to have been unconstitutional

It will take some time, of course, to unwind the clock of this portion of tariffs, but the sources of the payments themselves will not be difficult to determine.

Further, there is a probability that the payments themselves will have to be returned with some level of interest added to the costs, along with the legal fees/costs/expenses incurred by the prevailing parties.

Which sets the table for the current snapshot.

But what of the actual political fallout? What impacts will this cause in the midterms?

Recently, the left, which lacks in most political areas of interests had been hoisted ion their own petards of supporting illegal aliens, to include murderers, rapists, robbers and the like, by funding the protests as well as the bail demands for many of the illegals arrested for criminal acts, particularly in the fringe left cities such as New York, LA and Portland.

ICE detainers are frequently ignored. Murders, rapes, robberies and assaults have resulted. Many illegals are simply let go, back our on the streets to continue their crimes.

So-called “sanctuary cities” urge fellow leftists to riot and engage in various types of violence and obstruction in an effort to end or reduce ICE and related law enforcement agencies from fulfilling their sworn duty to apprehend and deport the illegals infesting us.

Out of control spending and massive, business-crushing tax increases have resulted in more and more businesses closing down and/or leaving these states. Portland’s downtown finds the value of many of their high rises sinking lower than yet another Willamette River sewage spill, with massive vacancy rates and a 70% devaluation in value.

They continue to stay in lockstep with their insane positions on fake females competing against the real thing and free entering women’s rest room and locker room facilities. They find themselves seemingly unable to even define what a woman actually is.

They continue their opposition to a requirement to prove American citizenship to vote in our elections, even though members of Congress are required to use picture voter ID to vote on legislation… and even though CNN polling indicates that 71% of democrats support voter ID.

Their insistence of sticking with the wrong end of these and other 80/20 equations made it increasingly likely that there would be little to no leftist resurgence in the mid-terms.

Until now.

NOW, they have been handled a legitimate issue reinforcing their oft-stated perspective that Trump refuses to obey the laws governing this country.  They will now begin a slightly different approach, wherein they rightfully CAN call his judgement into question, given his overwhelming defeat on the tariff issue.

Also, they can apply that test to anything he does, question his decisions on anything (since, even if Trump cured cancer, they complain about the shape and numbers of test tubes he used in the process.) and this time, have some legitimate reasoning for their positions.

In my decades of political work, there’s an axiom that has repeatedly proven true:

"If you’re ‘explaining?’ You’re losing.”

This defeat blew up the news cycle like a small nuclear warhead.

On this issue, it IS difficult to avoid the “how could he do this” question.

How is it possible that none of the legal talent he has didn’t question the legality of using a law that lacks any mention of the word “tariff” in it?

If they didn’t mention it, they should be fired.

If they DID mention it and he ignored them?

This crushing, 6-3 defeat. where even the alleged conservative members of the Court tossed him under a bus, is legitimate fodder for campaign commercials and the blame-game.

ALL politicians count on the notoriously short memories of the voters. Right this moment, most GOP pols are praying for that short memory with the onset of the midterms. Meanwhile, it’s a bet that leftists are not already writing the commercials they run wherein they call into discussion the President's judgment as well as the judgment of those who had supported Mr. Trump’s efforts.

But now, GOP incumbents out in the field are likely to find themselves on the receiving end of questions they do not want to be asked.

And will likely have a very difficult time answering.

Does this make the midterm flip more likely? Maybe. It certainly doesn’t help.

A competent ad campaign makes that more likely.

In my experience, the GOP has been “not bad” in getting power.

But they have a terrible time keeping it. Typically, as a result of their own failures, such as Majority Leader Thune failing to take action on the SAVE Act

And one of their major pitches just took a very solid, very bad hit.

Clark County is going to learn a horrific lesson on loot rail.

For readers not keeping up with the Sound Transit light rail insanity, a brief history:

Exclusive of the fact that Seattle's freeway congestion is among the worst in the entire country after wasting billions on loot rail as it is, (as is Portland's) nine years ago, without reading the fine print on HOW they were going to pay for it (massive increases in tab fees, mainly) voters in the Sound Transit district, apparently overcome by fentanyl smoke, voted to hand the district $54 billion for a promised expansion of 62 miles.

Not long ago, the Mafia chieftain running Sound Transit, former King County Executive Dow "I never met a tax increase I didn't love" Constantine came out publicly and finally spoke the heretofore obvious and well known, but never mentioned, truth.

An additional amount of money was going to be needed to complete the promised expansion project... as much as $30 billion more.

And how do they intend to do it?

At this point, the plan is to jack up a 1% property tax increase... with an actual result of a 3.8% increase, even though they're limited to 1%.

Having used the camel's-nose-under-the-tent-flap approach to get this rip off passed by the voters... this time, there will be no vote.

Governments typically don't seek voter approval for any tax increase for fear of voters saying "no."

Now, unlike the loot rail scam being rammed down our throats here locally, Sound Transit at least asked initially. No one is asking us if we want this insanity.

The reason I mention the Sound Transit debacle is simple.

THAT will be the blueprint for how we get screwed here.

WHATEVER number the scum running the IBR ultimately come up with?

Don't believe it.

There WILL be massive budget shortfalls for this scam, as even now, Oregon has loaded that garbage up like a Christmas Tree, major improvements such as new cars they'll be running through THEIR system, paid for by mainly the tolls Washington residents have to shell out to go to work and then return.

And when those shortfalls hit?

Guess who's going to pay for it? And how?

Sound Transit is showing us. $14 billion or $17 billion for the cross river, loot rail scam or whatever the final number they claim may be?

Don't believe it.

And even now, if you do the math?

Including the most recent cost scams for light rail in Seattle?

The idiots who voted for THEIR rip off are now being shown the INTERIM true cost of this expansion.
Expect that number to continue to skyrocket.

Divide 62 miles into $54 billion. That figure will get you the cost per mile promised to get that scam approved by the voters. In short, the promised cost even then was $871 million per mile.

Add the possible $30 billion to that number, billions voters will have zero say over, and what do you get? $1.355 billion. (a number that will go much high than even the $30 billion)

Per mile.

And we all already know that getting the deadly fungus of Portland loot rail across the river is just phase one. After that, the leftists will start demanding expansion in Clark County for a system we do not want, do not need and cannot afford.

And they will do their best to expand that scam without asking us. Or if they DO ask us?

They'll use the Washington State Supreme Court method of lying to get initial approval while they dramatically understate the costs; only to, again, like Sound Transit is now, jack up the costs later and force us to pay the increases.

Speaking of loot rail Sound Transit and our own bridge replacement around here...

By now, most reading this are aware that 1. The voters of the Sound Transit district screwed themselves by voting FOR a $54 billion bond to extend the current worthless insanity of the loot rail system that now needs a 62-mile extension... which is what the initial 62-mile extension promised, and

2. It turns out NOW that Sound Transit admits to a likely shortfall of as much as a paltry additional $40 billion more to accomplished what they stupidly promised for $54 billion a mere 9 years ago.
Which around here locally reflects the lies we've been told for a decade about what the I-5 loot rail project/bridge replacement scam is supposed to cost, a number now projected to be as much as $17 billion, more than doubling the costs of this unneeded, unwanted and unaffordable rip-off designed to infest Clark County with the repeatedly-rejected-by-voters light rail rip off.

But I digress.

On November 9, 2016, I wrote the following when I discovered the nimrods in the Sound Transit area voted for that insanity.

https://clarkcountypolitics.blogspot.com/2016/11/sound-transit-voters-agree-to-waste-54.html

"I'm struggling to understand it. This is a MASSIVE waste of money that will, if history has judged... accomplish absolutely nothing except to enrich the special interests, set up a series of under-funded projects that will make the $54 billion look like a parking ticket by the time these clowns are done screwing these people... and when the system is built... it will make ABSOLUTELY NO DIFFERENCE."

(one of many articles about this scam here at the link:)

Weird, isn't it? I'm just a local yokel nobody. How did *I* know what the politicians supporting this stupidity apparently, did NOT know?

Does ANYONE believe that once this insane waste of money begins construction, that whatever lie of a number they actually come up with to pay for this insane project will not any closer to the promised number than Sound Transit as a percentage of the promised cost?

Almost exactly like the Sound Transit scam?

But the Supreme Court of this state decided that campaign lies are perfectly OK.

https://clarkcountypolitics.blogspot.com/2017/02/a-quick-reminder-our-state-supreme.html

"The best remedy for false or unpleasant speech is more speech, not less speech," Johnson wrote. "The importance of this constitutional principle is illustrated by the very real threats to liberty posed by allowing an un-elected government censor like the PDC to act as an arbiter of truth."

Where Justice Johnson blew it, of course, is where he referred to "lying speech," as "unpleasant speech."

Which causes one to ponder: if you make financial decisions on information provided by an alleged "trustworthy source," i.e. government; and the end result is you lose billions of dollars, I would venture to say the campaign of lies used to gain approval for that funding is a great deal more than "unpleasant speech."

In fact... I would venture to say that such a result would be outright fraud.

Candidates and government at all levels rightfully viewed that decision an INVITATION to lie, cheat, or exaggerate, or all 3.

After all, the Supreme Court of this state TOLD them it was OK and there's no accountability.

And under those conditions?

Why wouldn't they?

Is it time to stop listening to the talking heads?

One of the reasons I stopped listening to talking heads of either side is the last thing I need is to be told what to think.

Back in 2016, I remember all the talking heads telling us Trump was going to get flattened in the election against Hillary.

99% of the talking heads were wrong about that.

Months before the election, I had concluded Trump would win.

So, on election night, I'm sitting there, watching TV coverage as they were proven wrong and I asked myself: why do I listen to any of these people since I obviously knew more than any of them?

I don't care what The View thinks. I don't care what Sean Hannity thinks. I don't care what CNN says. I don't care what FOXNews says. I don't watch any of them.

And I certainly don't care what Tucker Carlson says.

Maybe.... just maybe... it's time to throw off the yoke of programming... being told what to think, when and how to think it, and what to do about it.

Stop being lazy. Do the heavy lifting.

Think for yourselves.

Try it sometimes. I know it can be hard. I know, particularly in this AI era that you don't know what to believe, that even your own eyes can betray you.

But being told what to think/believe by others who are only concerned about their own agenda has led to the most divided country since 1865.

It is time to stop the insanity. And for those who understandably claim some version of dislike for politics, let me leave you with this somewhat modified axiom:

"You may not be interested in politics.... But politics is most definitely interested in you."