Thoughts on Trump and Ukraine: not what you might expect.

Here's the reality:

Let me say at the outset I am anything but a leftist. An almost rabid Trump supporter, particularly given the alternative.

But in this case, the right is wrong.

Dead wrong.

Putin has repeatedly stated words to the effect that he wants to regrow the Warsaw Pact countries under his control.

At this point, at least 4 countries (Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) are all former Warsaw Pact countries. And now?

They’re all NATO countries.

Abandonment of Ukraine, a country we swindled into giving their nukes to Russia in return for guarantees of their continuing sovereignty; an agreement, come to think of it, that Russia also signed (See Budapest Memo for details) would provide Russia with a major strategic advantage on their way to realizing Putin’s dream.

As a former Army officer who spent 6 years in the region, 3+ in Recon, Russia’s total occupation (or even partial occupation, which is essentially what’s advocated in the Trump peace plan) is a recipe for disaster.

Historically, appeasement of dictators, i.e., allowing Russia to keep the approximately 1/3^rd of Ukraine, including the Crimea, they currently occupy, sends exactly the wrong message to Putin, et al.

Let’s remember, RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE at Biden’s request (when Biden PUBLICLY announced we would not commit US military forces on the ground that was tantamount to an open invitation to invade, which a grateful Putin was happy to accept) and not the other way around. And now?

Trump and his supporters on this issue want a “peace deal” that will reward Putin for it.

Meanwhile, Putin gets away with 10's of thousands of murders, 10's of thousands of war crimes, thousands of rapes, hundreds of billions in damages, 1/3rd of a country he invaded to destroy and the sure and certain knowledge that the US is his bitch.

You know... the same things we hung nazi leadership for?

Why DJT is getting played like this is beyond me.

Clearly, "never again" ended in 2022.

Look at a map. See the strategic position Ukraine has.

Going through with this will merely give Putin time to reorganize, rearm and retrain.

And when he invades Poland through Belarus? Then what?

Do we blow off NATO?

OF COURSE NATO should shoulder a great deal more of the burden. But nature and politics both abhors a vacuum and if we create such a vacuum, someone we may not like WILL fill it.

Many who want to hang Ukraine out to dry would love that as well, wrongly believing isolationism, as we also practiced in the 30s last century (and how’d that work out for us?) is the way to go. Many, militarily and historically ignorant, wrongly believe that THIS time, Neville Chamberlains “Peace in our time” approach will somehow work.

But is this where I point out that 11 months after he waved that piece of paper around, Germany invaded Poland? Or that Germany partitioned Poland with Russia, so they had a roughly 50/50 take of the spoils?

With Biden’s moronic PUBLIC proclamation that the US would stay out of it, that made it simply too much of an opportunity for Putin to ignore. (I’m not suggesting that was the wrong policy. I’m suggesting that TELLING HIM PUBLICLY what we would do in advance of an invasion effectively green-lighted said invasion) effectively, we broke it.

We own it.

Putin understands that America has a history of abandonment of allies when it takes too long or is considered to be too much of a burden for this country. He knew, like any enemy of the US knows, that if they just hang on long enough, we’ll declare some sort of victory and go home, even when, in places like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, it turned into a an ignominious defeat.

Let’s face it: the reality is most on the right want Ukraine sold out because the aid situation to Ukraine was a Biden policy and far too many believe that since he started giving Ukraine aid, it MUST be wrong.

Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day. And in this case, the money he spent has resulted in a great many dead Russians that we will not have to kill.

I oppose this effort to check a box on the campaign promise list. Peace in Ukraine is a wonderful goal. But I GUARANTEE, based on historical experience that any peace achieved will merely be temporary.

Putin wants to turn all of Ukraine into the same serfdom Hitler wanted it for: agriculture and rare minerals.

Selling out Ukraine in a bogus “land for peace” scam won’t work any better in there than it did in Gaza. Appeasing dictators NEVER works for long, and you damned well know it.

Insanity has many definitions. One of them is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different outcome. Sadly, this is Trump doing that.

I support Trump in most everything he does and is doing. But abandoning NATO and Ukraine is not the answer, any more than abandoning 1/3^rd of the United States to any invader would be the answer.

I urge anyone concerned with that situation to step back, leave their emotion and politics out of it, and look at the reality and strategic issues confronting us with a Russian dominated Ukraine.

What, for example, would be the situation if we had allowed Axis forces to keep 1/3^rd of the areas THEY conquered in World War Two in exchange for “peace?” What would have been the outcome if those we held accountable for their war crimes after VJ day in Nuremberg and Japan had, instead, been allowed to remain in power?  You know, in return for peace?

I shudder to think.

Many of us on the right blame Ukraine aid as a reason other needs within the US have gone unfulfilled. I disagree.

The border was a sieve because of policy, not money. Homelessness is horrific because the homeless are never held accountable for their decisions…. And we’ve wasted billions on the homeless with little to nothing to show for it, except for a voracious homelessness industry that is wasting horrific amounts of money for an ever worsening homelessness problem. And for the most part, the homeless ARE homeless because of the decisions they made that led up to that outcome. Public school education sucks for a wide variety of reasons that boil down to POLICY where pathetic academic outcomes are allowed, if not encouraged. (There’s a reason where we spend the most money per student but get the worst academic outcomes in the industrialized world, and money has nothing to do with it.)

For me, the question is what would be measurably and positively different in the US today if we’d never heard of Ukraine?

You know and I know, the answer is nothing.

So yeah, let’s abandon Ukraine. Let’s allow Putin to get away with the same crimes we hung nazi and Japanese war criminals for. Let’s reward this guy for the death, the rape, the murder, the destruction and his OWN war crimes as we then get to pay even MORE money to repair what Putin blew up because you know damned well there will never be any kind of reparations.

American volunteers have fought and died in Ukraine.  And if I could?

I’d be there fighting with them. But there’s little need for disabled veterans 69 years old. Knowledge notwithstanding, I’d be more of a hindrance than a help.

As I said, I support Trump. I’m never going to be a single-interest voter.

But he’s a man, not a god. And as a man he’s capable of making mistakes like any other man. And I seriously hope he doesn’t go through with this one.

Is the Israeli War spinning out of control?

As this is written, we seemingly have two carrier strike groups (Eisenhower and Ford in the Eastern Med.) Combat Marines are available as part of a quick reaction force. You can bet that our units like the 25th ID, the 82nd Airborne and the 101 Airborne (Air Assault) are getting ready to go and taking steps to increase their readiness posture.

Units already in Europe are likely hamstrung due to Russian expansionism. Russia, of course, is doing everything they can to get a major war to break out in the Middle East to further dilute our badly crippled military as it is.

And how could anyone believe that China isn't watching all of this with MAJOR interest... since their calculus is likely one of... if they get more tangled up in the Middle East, then we'll never have a better chance to take out Taiwan... which they want so badly they can taste it.

Now many of these things have been on the table for a long time.... even before the hamas scum launched their terrorist attacks against Israel.

But I stumbled across a story that troubles me greatly, a story that broke a few hours ago.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, went to Saudi Arabia to have a chat with the Saudi Crown Prince, one Mohammed bin Salman, aka "MbS."

After forcing Blinken to wait for several hours, Salman then cancelled the meeting.

No notice. No warning.

Can you even remotely begin to ponder MbS taking such a step if the President's name was Trump?

That's neither here nor there, because it isn't Trump. It's Biden.

What does this insulting behavior mean, precisely?

Well, even in the diplomatic world that is a humongous "Fuck You" to the United States. It means they neither respect us nor fear us. I suppose, with an incompetently, indecisive and frequently cowardly foreign policy, I can understand why MbS would take such a step.

He gains a great deal of face in the process, ending the politically opportunistic idea on the part of his political opposition that he is America's puppet. The US loses a great deal of face in a region where that sort of thing matters.

But at the same time, he risks a great deal depending on American retaliation. We can cut off his parts and maintenance fort his almost entirely American mechanized armed forces, in everything from personnel carriers to F16's.

He can cut off oil to us (hey, face it: it's not like it hasn't been done before) because he knows that thanks to Biden, we've long since lost our energy independence. He also knows our strategic reserve is gutted.

For our part, we can end the security services we've provided that have kept Saudi from becoming an Iranian vassal state. We can withdraw all American personnel and equipment from not only Saudi, but from the entire region.

There's a great many things we can do... a great many things THEY can do... and the omnipresent reality that none of this would be happening if Trump has been in office.

To me, it seems increasingly likely that American combat troops are going to be committed. The army for its part, is what... 40,000 under strength dues to blown recruiting quotas? All of the other services save for the crayon eaters (slang for Marines) are similarly situated. Activating even the inactive reserve forces likely could shore up the numbers but for how long?

The rurality here is that clearly, it seems none of the players in the area give a damn what Biden thinks, or, for that matter, even does.

They've had it with Israel; Israel's had it with them. And Biden's (and per force, the United States') stature is the lowest of any president in this... or the last.... century.

Expect it to get worse before it gets better, particular with leftist hamas supporters infesting Congress.

The debacle of the Obama Fairy-Tale Foreign Policy

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So, what have been the developments since the ascension of the empty suit?

North Korea pops a nuke and fires missiles.

Iran fires missiles and deploys their Navy (such as it is) while continuing to threaten the existence of Israel.

Israel notes his eagerness to sell them out and rightfully tells him to get stuffed.

Russia seems to be ignoring him altogether.

Afghanistan has all of the same problems it had when he were elected 7 months ago, and then some.

Europe was impressed by his shtick, but when it really counted, how much help did they provide for Afghanistan?

Pirates are becoming more emboldened by his incompetence and indecisiveness.

Yes, the security of the world is now in the hands of a buffoonish clown. Give me President Bush every day and twice on Sunday.

(Thanks to the boat-riding leftist for the title correction.)
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