Saturday, June 24, 2023

Is this the end for Putin? What happens if PMC Wagner (Prigozhin) takes out Vlad, then what? Is this the end of the war in Ukraine?

The question for planning purposes is "Now What?" (deliberate capital W, BTW)

I would submit these things don't happen in a vacuum. The early bet is that this has been that this has been coordinated with SOME of the major oligarchs. They're only going to put up with losing their yachts and taking business hits for so long.

It will be difficult to impossible for the only hope for Putin, which is his military support (if any), is in no position to disengage in the west and recover by moving to the west, even IF Russian ground forces were loyal... which indications they are anything but.



It would seem that the "how" of it, as in, how did a convicted felon, hot dog vendor/cook put this program together, is secondary to "what happens if he pulls it off?"

I would go on to suggest that characterizations of this effort as equating it to two mafia families fighting it out for control of New York, so to speak, is overly simplistic.

1. Prigozhin is after the cash. Apparently, Vlad has a couple of hundred billion lying around and he wants it. What self-respecting, budding dictator doesn't want the cash?

2. He likely recognizes that Ukraine isn't going anywhere. He can withdraw all of the Russian forces out of the occupied territories (including Crimea), which Zelenskyy will likely allow under certain circumstances. He can rebuild his military over the next few years and then take another shot at it.

So to speak.

3.  He can blame the entirety of this debacle On Putin and their/his leadership. He can easily sell this. In fact, it's easier to sell than Girl Scout Cookies.

4. On one hand, Prigozhin doesn't come across as the most stable fellow.  But he's willing to deal and someone around him is perhaps selling him on the idea that he can be hailed as sort-of-a-hero.

BUT, if he takes over... orders the withdrawal from Ukraine... Rounds up Russian military leadership and, well, eliminates them... While also rounding up the troops... including Putin... who are accused of war crimes and hands them over for war crimes trials... Enters into negotiations for reparations to repair the damage inflicted on Ukraine... he can actively begin the appearance of rehabilitation of Russia. 

However, while I was born on a Saturday, it wasn't LAST Saturday. That's the best-case scenario.

But I also don't believe Prigozhin has a death wish. 

Taking Moscow and then not changing anything simply isn't possible.

This seems to be not unlike a cook on an aircraft carrier taking control of the 7th Fleet. Is Prigozhin the dog, or merely the tail?

If Prigozhin take control of Moscow?  How would he not wreak revenge/political pay back if for no other reason than to consolidate that control?

Stalin provided what, for Stalin, was a reasonably successful play book.  What's changed? Why not follow it now?




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