Mac45 | April 27, 2016 at 10:59 am
The electorate [remember those guys?] is speaking loudly this year. As the exit polling in Pennsylvania showed, the voters feel “betrayed” by establishment politicians. So, they went with THE anti-establishment outsider, Trump.
Cruz, for all of his attempts to appear as an anti-establishment politician has to many connections which suggest that he is much less anti-establishment than he appears. The Republican party created Trump by studiously ignoring the clearly expressed desires of its membership. The Republican electorate was screaming for the repeal of Obamacare.
It was screaming for the enforcement of immigration laws. It was screaming against legislative actions which would make it easier to export American jobs and businesses. And, the politicians totally ignored them. So, now we have a revolution and the political leadership is wringing its hands and bemoaning the situation.
As to the argument that if Trump or Cruz do not get the nomination then 1/3 of the GOP electorate will walk, in the General Election, this is probably true. However, the major difference this makes, for the General Election, is that Cruz is far less likely to pick up significant independent voters and would not pick up any Democrat voters. Trump, on the other hand, will still have some conservative appeal and is far more likely to pick-up significant independent support as well as some Democrats. Remember, in the campaign for the General election, candidates, from both parties, have to run as moderates or they will lose the contest. Trump can do that much more effectively than can Cruz.
Cruz will stay in the race. He is a career politician and a good showing in the primaries this year can serve as a springboard for a later nomination for President. Also, there are a large percentage of Cruz supporters in delegate positions [even though those delegates supposedly represent Trump in the first vote]. If there is no nominee on the first vote, then Cruz, through his supporters among the delegates, is in a very good position to heavily influence the convention. Again, a plus for a career politician. This can influence what policies Trump may be forced to embrace.
One thing that has to be remembered, if the Republican Party does not want to simply disappear, is that the rank and file membership is not voting FOR Trump. It is voting against the political establishment which ignores the wishes of the electorate. And, if the Party ignores the expressed wishes of the electorate, in the primaries, then it will lose a huge percentage of its membership; probably forever.
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