As of this writing, Greg Kimsey's shop is showing 41,409 out of 234,327 ballots sent out have been turned back in. To meet Kimsey's estimate of a return in the upper 30's, another 40,000 or so ballots would have to come in between today and tomorrow.
In 08, the last two days plus showed a return of roughly 20,000. Applying that number (or slightly more) to today's scenario and it looks like we'll be lucky to hit 30%.
What's it mean? Well, the fewer ballots turned in the better for Paulbots, since they've mastered the art of showing up; the few of them that actually do, that is. But in an election where independents are staying away in droves (obviously) that likely magnifies their impacts in the over-all outcomes.
It also doesn't speak well for the independent vote, meaning the hard core left and right will likely have a disproportionate impact on the outcomes.
This does not particularly bode well for Boldt, but it strengthens the case for Battan and Madore, the party's picks.
It also strengthens Tom Mielke and may make it somewhat more difficult for Joe Tanner, but I still expect them to make it through.
In the 18th, this may strengthen the Paulbot's (Silliman's) vote to the mid teens. Not enough to make any real difference. I still expect Adrian Cortes to be very close to ahead of Brandon Vick in the general. My entire family voted for him.
It also makes it more likely that the Paulbot's presence in the PCO ranks may increase. Unfortunately for them, there just aren't all that many who have a suicidal political ideation, and many in the party know damned well that effort is a scam to replace the current "establishment" with a Paulbot establishment.
In the PUD race, neo-communist union thug Parker will likely make it through to the general. The remainder? Who knows? There's a dozen of them.
A lower vote likely favors incumbents, save Boldt, in just about all races... including judges.
Thirty hours or so to go and we'll all know.
The Paulies will likely get the party it now it looks.
ReplyDeleteBut their doing so reminds me of a dog chasing a car.
A dog wouldn't know what to do wit he car if he ever caught it either.
Some one much smarter than I once said "There may be much more to the wanting than there is to the having."
ReplyDeleteFor any of this to make any difference, these clowns need to make substantial gains in '14.
Will they change any seat in the 49th? because that's all there is available, since every other seat is likely to be GOP.
Are they going to take out Lasher? Are they going to get rid of Stuart?
Because if they don't, then none of this garbage will have meant anything.
And we both know that's what's happening.