FiveThirtyEight: Rossi to lose.

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This is as close to a sure thing as possible. Is it impossible for Rossi to win? of course not.

Is it likely the numbers would look this way if he had announced in February when the poll came out showing Rossi ahead?

Not even close. Pride goes a long way before a fall.

Why am I so sure this is accurate?

In 08, this guy only managed to call 35 races in the US Senate correctly. Of course, there were only 35 races TO call, but that kind of accuracy is difficult to ignore.

Washington Senate More About This Race »

Murray vs. Rossi

Projected Election Results

Based on polling and demographic data, this is the prediction of how the state will vote on election day.

Murray 49.1% +/-6%

Rossi 48.5% +/-6%

Chance Each Candidate Wins The Seat

The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

Murray 54.3% chance of win

Rossi 45.7% chance of win

Recent Polls

Date	Poll	Sample Size	538 Poll Weight	Murray Democrat	Rossi Republican	Size of lead
Aug. 18-19	SurveyUSA	618 LV	0.92	45	52		+7.0
Aug. 18	Rasmussen	750 LV	0.89	48	44	+4.0
July 27-Aug. 1	PPP	1,204 RV	0.48	49	46	+3.0
July 28	Rasmussen	750 LV	0.18	49	47	+2.0
July 14	Rasmussen	750 LV	0.06	45	48		+3.0
June 22	Rasmussen	500 LV		47	47	+0.0
June 9-13	Elway	405 RV		47	40	+7.0
May 26	Rasmussen	500 LV		48	47	+1.0
May 4	Rasmussen	500 LV		48	46	+2.0
May 3-23	U. Washington	850 RV		42	40	+2.0
April 29-May 2	Elway	405 RV		51	34	+17.0
April 19-22	SurveyUSA	517 LV		42	52		+10.0
April 4	Rasmussen	500 LV		48	46	+2.0
March 9	Rasmussen	500 LV		46	49		+3.0
Jan. 24-25	Moore Information	500 LV		43	45		+2.0

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